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Charging the future: Asia leads drive to next-generation EV battery market.
Pushing the limits of lithium-ion batteries and investing in all-solid-state batteries

Battery market to grow 6X by 2025E
We believe the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and hybrids over the next decade will spur an enormous increase in the market for EV batteries and heightened demand for advances in battery technology. We forecast a six-fold increase in the market for EV batteries to US$24 billion by 2025, fueled by increases in energy density to lower prices. In this report, we outline where we see Asian companies leading this growth and pioneering efforts to find the next-generation battery technology to replace lithium-ion.

Powering the transition to EVs
Our battery market forecasts rest on our expectations for a 30% CAGR in sales of electric vehicles (EVs) to 2025, along with a 36% CAGR in sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) to reduce CO2 emissions. We expect that over that span, the gravimetric energy density of EV batteries will climb to over 500 Wh/kg from 200 Wh/kg in 2015, likely requiring transition to a post-lithium technology.

Investing with eye to lithium’s limits
Our approach is to look for companies that will benefit from expansion and innovation in the lithium-ion battery (LIB) market, as well as those invested in the development of potential successor technologies. We believe the postlithium transition could start from 2020. Among a range of alternatives we focus on all-solid-state batteries that would do away with the liquid electrolyte found in most lithium-ion batteries and offer advantages in size and cost.

Asian at heart of battery ecosystem
LG Chem (CL-Buy), Korea’s leading battery manufacturer, has supply contracts with multiple automakers, and in our view has an edge over rivals from both a technical and cost perspective BYD (Buy), China’s leading EV manufacturer, is mass-producing its own inexpensive batteries. In addition, we highly value Toyota’s long-term strategy to focus on all-solid-state batteries, but remain Neutral due to US auto slowdown concerns in the near term.

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